Predictive modeling of perioperative patient deterioration: combining unanticipated ICU admissions and mortality for improved risk prediction

Table 2 Multi-variate analysis of unanticipated ICU admissions and in-hospital mortality

Method	AUROC	AUPRC	AUKC	Precision	Sensitivity	Kappa	F1 score
End-point: Unanticipated ICU admissions
LR	83.4% (2.7%)	5.1% (1.9%)	2.1% (0.3%)	8.9% (4.4%)	12.5% (6.9%)	0.10 (0.05)	10.3% (5.2%)
LR (Combined)^a	82.1% (3.1%)	5.1% (1.8%)	2.1% (0.3%)	9.0% (3.4%)	12.5% (5.3%)	0.10 (0.04)	10.3% (4.0%)
End-point: In-hospital mortality
LR	91.8% (2.9%)	6.4% (3.4%)	1.6% (0.4%)	7.0% (3.1%)	26.8% (11.8%)	0.11 (0.05)	11.0% (4.7%)
LR (Combined)^a	89.5% (3.2%)	4.9% (4.3%)	1.3% (0.3%)	5.9% (2.8%)	22.4% (11.0%)	0.09 (0.04)	9.2% (4.3%)
End-point: Unanticipated ICU admissions & in-hospital mortality
LR	83.5% (2.8%)	7.2% (2.8%)	2.6% (0.3%)	12.2% (4.2%)	13.5% (5.4%)	0.12 (0.05)	12.8% (4.6%)
LR (Ensemble)^b	84.5% (2.8%)	7.0% (2.6%)	2.7% (0.3%)	11.4% (4.2%)	12.7% (5.8%)	0.11 (0.05)	11.9% (5.2%)
SVM	82.8% (2.9%)	5.5% (2.2%)	2.4% (0.3%)	8.4% (4.4%)	8.8% (4.7%)	0.08 (0.04)	8.4% (4.3%)
XGB	79.7% (3.9%)	5.7% (2.6%)	2.2% (0.4%)	10.9% (5.5%)	8.5% (4.6%)	0.09 (0.05)	9.4% (4.8%)
RF	81.4% (2.8%)	5.1% (1.4%)	2.3% (0.3%)	9.5% (7.0%)	4.0% (3.5%)	0.05 (0.04)	5.1% (3.7%)

Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall curve (AUPRC), Area Under the Kappa curve (AUKC)
^aThe combined LR is trained on the combined outcome of unanticipated ICU admissions and mortality
^bThe ensemble LR is an ensemble model of the LR trained on unanticipated ICU admissions and the LR trained on mortality

ISSN: 2047-0525